Election Preview 

And the Winner is?

By Kenneth Besserman
Director of Government Affairs & Special Counsel

Octber 29, 2024

You have watched all the TV ads, seen the social media posts, seen the debates, received all of the mail pieces, and now you have voted (or will vote on Election Day). Now, all that remains is to determine who prevailed at the national and state level. Here in Texas, we had a ballot that consisted of races for the President, U.S. Senate, and all Texas House districts and half of the Texas Senate seats.

We all know that the Presidential race may take some days or weeks to finally determine a winner, but on the state level, by the end of election night or the next day, virtually all of the other races on the ballot will be known. There may be a race or two that is too close to call, but most races will have a declared winner.

The Same, But Different

In Texas, party control of the Texas House and the Texas Senate is not in jeopardy. The Texas House – now at 83 Republicans and 67 Democrats – will remain in Republican control. Because of redistricting in past years, the number of truly contested House and Senate races has significantly diminished. Districts have been drawn to be safely Republican or safely Democratic. There are only about six House seats that are truly contested where a candidate from either party could win the race. The consensus among election prognosticators is that the Democratic Party may pick up two to four House seats, but like the Presidential polls, those races could swing in either direction. What is for certain is that the House will remain Republican in 2025.

The Senate is even less in play than the House. Only half of the Senate (16 districts) are up for reelection in 2024, with the other 15 up in 2026. On the ballot this year is the most closely watched and closely divided race between Senator Morgan LaMantia (D) and Adam Hinojosa (R) in Senate District 27 that runs from Corpus Christi down to the Rio Grande Valley. Senator LaMantia won the district in 2022 by less than 500 votes. The race is very close again this year, so the final Senate split is still up in the air. Currently, the Senate has 19 Republicans and 12 Democrats. That number could stay the same or the Republicans could increase by one member. Ultimately, the Republican Party will remain in control of the Senate, House and all the statewide offices.

The Rumor Mill

There are lots of rumors, gossip and stories floating about regarding what will happen after the November 5 election.

Will Speaker Dade Phelan remain in power for the 2025 election or will another Republican defeat his speakership?

If Donald Trump wins the presidency, will some elected officials – in the legislature or statewide – go to Washington D.C. as part of a new administration?

Will there be retirements by any of the statewide elected officials?

If the Democratic Party remains in control of many of the large cities and counties in Texas, will the state legislature continue to do battle with local governments?

Will the hangover from the impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton continue to ripple through the 2025 legislative session?

Advocating for Texas CPAs

The election and its aftermath will have an effect on the legislative work and advocacy at TXCPA. With at least 30 new members of the legislature coming into office in 2025, our advocacy work will be ever more important in forging new legislative relationships and building on existing relationships.

TXCPA’s pipeline initiatives in 2025 will be dependent on those relationships so that we can pass some meaningful pipeline reforms. There will be a lot more to come on TXCPA’s 2025 legislative agenda in the weeks ahead as we finalize the agenda through our committees and Board of Directors.

If you are a TXCPA Key Person, thank you for your time and effort to advocate on behalf of TXCPA. Without your efforts, our legislative successes would not have been possible.

If you have not yet signed up to be a Key Person, please sign up or reach out to TXCPA to learn how you can be involved in Advocacy Day, take action with legislative alerts and learn more about our advocacy program. Find out more about Advocacy Day and Midyear Leadership Council Meeting on January 28-29, 2025 in Austin.

Happy Election Day!

Only 73 days left until the 2025 Texas legislative session!