Election Preview 

The 2024 Election and What it Means for Texas

By Kenneth Besserman
Director of Government Affairs & Special Counsel

September 10, 2024

The 2024 election is upon us. On November 5, 2024, and for many weeks before, the American and Texas electorate will go to the polls to cast ballots for the President, Senators, Representatives, state officials, and a myriad of other local races.

While election seasons seem to be never-ending as of late, the 2024 election has seemed especially long. The 2024 presidential race has been in the news almost daily since the last election in 2020 and the change at the top of the Democratic Party ticket has further cemented the 2024 election as one of the most newsworthy and important elections in decades.

The National Election

On the national level, this election will see many close elections that will determine which party controls the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives. We have all heard and read about the close presidential race – which as of the writing of this article in early September 2024 – seems to be coming down to seven swing states that are too close to call. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada seem to be where former President Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris are focusing their resources. Those states are largely reminiscent of the swing states in 2020.

In the U.S. Senate, party control will likely come down to Senate races in Montana, Nevada, Florida, Texas, and perhaps a couple of other races. Currently, the Democratic Party has a slim one seat majority, but election experts and prognosticators indicate that the Senate outcome currently favors the Republican Party.

In the U.S. House of Representatives, the current margins are also very tight, with the Republican Party holding a very slim majority. There are a significant number of House races that are too close to call and they are located in swing states where turnout will have a decisive impact. Predictions for the party control of the U.S. House slightly favor the Democratic Party, but like the control of the White House and Senate, predictions are fluid.

Texas on My Mind

While control of the Texas House and Texas Senate are not in jeopardy this election, there are still some significant races and issues taking shape. Statewide elected offices – Governor, Lt. Governor, Comptroller, Attorney General – are not on the ballot in 2024; those races will be on the ballot in 2026. In November 2024, the full Texas House (150 districts) and half of the Texas Senate (16 districts) will be on the ballot.

The Senate will likely not have a change in the party split – currently 19 Republicans and 12 Democrats. Redistricting in 2021 solidified the Republican control of the Senate and there are very few swing districts where a candidate from either party could win the election. The most significant news in the Texas Senate going into the 2025 legislative session will be that former Senator John Whitmire – the longest serving Texas Senator and the former Dean of the Texas Senate – retired from his Houston Senate seat to become Mayor of Houston. The new Dean of the Texas Senate will be Senator Judith Zaffirini (D-Laredo).

The Texas House of Representatives is where the action has been in 2023 and 2024 and will be for the election and during the 2025 legislative session. At the end of the 2023 legislative session and for the remainder of 2023, the issue in the Texas legislature, and especially the Texas House, was centered around the impeachment and trial of Attorney General Ken Paxton and the issue of school choice/vouchers. Those two issues were centerpiece during the Republican primaries and runoffs in early 2024.

More than 40 incumbent members of the House were challenged by members of their own party. Governor Abbott and Attorney General Paxton took an active role in the Republican primary targeting many sitting members of the House on their impeachment and school voucher votes. Over 20 Republican incumbents were defeated in the primary or runoff elections. This has created an experience vacuum in the Texas House as many long-term leaders and committee chairs were defeated.

Most significantly in the Texas House, there was a challenge to Speaker Dade Phelan. It is very unusual for a sitting House Speaker to be challenged in their primary election. Speaker Phelan came in second in a three-way primary forcing a runoff. In the runoff, Speaker Phelan prevailed by 366 votes. As for Speaker Phelan’s continuing as Speaker of the House in 2025, while that is in question, most Austin insiders think that he will prevail in his run for Speaker. As of this article, there are four announced candidates for Speaker of the House. January 14, 2025, is the first day of the legislative session, but will also be the day that the Texas House elects a new Speaker. Stay tuned for developments in the Speaker’s race.

The Texas House, like the Senate, will remain in Republican control, but the party split will likely be a bit closer than in previous years. While redistricting largely solidified Republican control of the Texas House, many suburban districts near Dallas, Ft. Worth and Houston are seeing large influxes of new voters with unknown voting histories, which makes electoral predictions very difficult. Many election observers believe that the Democratic Party may gain three to five seats, but control of the House will stay in Republican hands. With at least 30 new members of the Texas House entering office in 2025, it will be a different legislature in 2025.

The state budget, infrastructure, property taxes, school choice, and water will be front and center in 2025. TXCPA is in the midst of finalizing our legislative agenda to address CPA pipeline issues and other issues that are important to you. Stay tuned for a lot more information about TXCPA’s legislative initiatives and please reach out to us if you have any legislative, election or advocacy information you would like to share.